Ajeya Cotra joins us to talk about thinking clearly in a rapidly changing world. Learn more about the work of Ajeya and her colleagues: https://www.openphilanthropy.org Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:44 The default versus the accelerating picture of the future 04:25 The role of AI in accelerating change 06:48 Extrapolating economic growth 08:53 How do we know whether the pace of change is accelerating? 15:07 How can we cope with a rapidly changing world? 18:50 How could the future be utopian? 22:03 Is accelerating technological progress immoral? 25:43 Should we imagine concrete future scenarios? 31:15 How should we act in an accelerating world? 34:41 How Ajeya could be wrong about the future 41:41 What if change accelerates very rapidly?
Basil Halperin discusses how financial markets and economic indicators, such as interest rates, can provide insights into AI development timelines and the potential economic impact of transformative AI.
Benjamin Todd discusses the evolution of reasoning models in AI, potential bottlenecks in compute and robotics, and offers advice on personal preparation for AGI, including skills, networks, and resilience, with projections through 2030.
Calum Chace discusses the potential for AI to transform employment, exploring universal income, fully-automated economies, AI-driven education, and the ethical challenges of attributing consciousness to machines.
